PNAC.info - Exposing the Project for the New American Century

"Regime Change" Ambitions in Iran

I'm again inclined to waive our policy of not posting particularly opinionated, biased, or mean-spirited material, due to the excellent content in the rest of the following article. The only real "offense" is that the author begins by saying President Bush is acting with "commendable stupidty", which I think is an appraisal that goes beyond the author's field of expertise. The rest of the article is much more suited to the purpose of foreign policy analysis, and provides some essential context to the simmering situation developing in Iran, albeit from a definitely judgmental viewpoint. Two more-journalistic appraisals follow it.

US wages war from within Iran
By Richard M Bennett
Jun 20, 2003

With commendable stupidity usually only reserved for the most powerful and isolated from reality, President George W Bush has managed to go some way towards repeating the catastrophic mistakes of Lyndon Johnson and ensnare the United States in an increasingly unpopular and probably unwinnable foreign military involvement. Just two months after the sudden collapse of organized Iraqi resistance to the US-led invasion, US troops are back in a Vietnam-scenario with the ambushing of military convoys, the regular use of grenades and rocket launchers against isolated American targets and indeed suicide bombers.

Using a marked degree of devious propaganda about the imminent threat of weapons of mass destruction and largely in the dark about the true allegiance and likely response of the majority of Iraqis, the US has now succeeded in alienating much of both the developed and Third World, and indeed signaled to both Russia and China that Washington's new-found military belligerence and diplomatic toughness are a profound threat to their influence and future powerbase. Not content with expending much of America's wealth and the lives of its young service personnel in largely fruitless campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq, Washington is now clearly preparing the ground for an attack on Iran.

Full Article...

And here is a more surface-level look at the situation in Iran:

Bush warns Iran on nuclear weapons, urges Tehran to treat pro-reform protesters with 'respect'

June 18th - 9:19 pm ET
SCOTT LINDLAW
Associated Press Writer

President Bush said Wednesday that he and other world leaders would not tolerate nuclear weapons in Iran, and administration officials expressed concern to the U.N. nuclear agency about the country's atomic program.

Bush suggested he did not believe such denials.

Full Article...

And here's another:

Setbacks Dog U.S. Iran Policy
By Michael Moran
MSNBC
Friday 20 June 2003

The United States began to show its teeth to Iran this week after a series of diplomatic setbacks dashed optimistic predictions of administration officials that an international consensus had formed about taking concrete steps to curb Iran's nuclear program. The souring of the administration's outlook was on display Friday as John Bolton, the hawkish undersecretary of state for arms control issues, said that military action against Iran is an option the U.S. is studying should diplomatic efforts to prevent Iran from building a nuclear arsenal fail.

But since then, across the board, actions the U.S. had hoped would lead to a strong condemnation of Iran for refusing to allow open inspections of all suspect nuclear facilities have fallen short.

Full Article...

US General Condemns Iraq Failures

Perhaps the most disturbing aspect of the stories about the U.S.'s failure to "win the peace" in Iraq is that the PNAC proponents have been pushing for this war for many years. One might think that with a solid 5 years of time to plan and prepare (the PNAC first urged a second war with Iraq in 1998), and with over a decade of close observation, and decades of involvement with the country, that some of these issues could have been better anticipated.

US General Condemns Iraq Failures
By Ed Vulliamy
The Observer

Sunday 22 June 2003

One of the most experienced and respected figures in a generation of American warfare and peacekeeping yesterday accused the US administration of 'failing to prepare for the consequences of victory' in Iraq.

In one of the most outspoken critiques from a man of his standing, Nash said the US had 'failed to understand the mindset and attitudes of the Iraqi people and the depth of hostility towards the US in much of the country'.

Full Story...

The Neo-Conservative Ascendancy in the Bush Administration

Jim Lobe has been on the tail of the neoconservatives since before the word �neocon� was widely used or known. His articles typically appear in the Asia Times, as well as on the website of Foreign Policy in Focus. He has also been a correspondent for Inter Press Service (IPS) for some 23 years.

IPS has just recently compiled all of Lobe�s stories on the neoconservative movement on one handy webpage. It is an invaluable resource, and worth browsing in order to get a handle on how the movement has evolved over recent years.

Check out the the IPS archive on "The Neo-Conservative Ascendancy in the Bush Administration."

US losing the peace in Afghanistan

This article has to much of import to excerpt it effectively. It's very much worth reading in full, and in concert with our previous entry on unrest in Iraq.

US losing the peace in Afghanistan
By Jim Lobe
Asia Times

WASHINGTON - Just as the United States is struggling to deal with major postwar headaches in Iraq, its efforts to pacify Afghanistan appear to be unraveling, according to a new report by a key group of experts sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and the Asia Society.

"This failure could gravely erode America's credibility around the globe and mark a major defeat in the US-led war on terrorism," added the report, which was written by the co-chairs of the independent CFR-Asia Society task force that has been following Afghanistan since before the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks against New York and the Pentagon.

...

In addition to devoting increasing energy to get Iraq under firm control, the administration is also increasingly preoccupied internationally with implementing the "roadmap" for Israeli-Palestinian peace and coping with the diplomatic fallout from both the Iraq war and its failure so far to find weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in that country. The alleged production and deployment of WMD by former president Saddam Hussein was cited by Bush and his allies as the main justification for going to war.

"This is what is called 'imperial over-stretch'," noted one congressional aide whose boss has long warned that Bush's post-September 11 strategic ambitions would stretch US forces impossibly thin within a very short time.

...

"If the administration fails to take the lead in providing more security and extending the authority of the central government," said Barnett Rubin, an Afghanistan expert at New York University and a member of the CFR-Asia Society Task Force, "our policy in Afghanistan is definitely on track to fail."

Full Story...

Disturbing Level of Unrest in Iraq

The PNAC strategy calls for a lasting presence and influence over places such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Syria, and the like. But the scene on the ground in the first two of those experiments must inspire serious doubts about whether or not such a plan is feasible -- whether nations in the Middle East will accept such a presence.

It's worthwhile, as always, to look at history when trying to understand the events of the present. Here is an excerpt from HistoryChannel.com's entry under "Iraq":

In World War I the British invaded Iraq in their war against the Ottoman Empire; Britain declared then that it intended to return to Iraq some control of its own affairs. Nationalist elements, impatient over delay in gaining independence, revolted in 1920 but were suppressed by the British. Late that year the Treaty of S�vres established Iraq as a mandate of the League of Nations under British administration, and in 1921 the country was made a kingdom headed by Faisal I. With strong reluctance an elected Iraqi assembly agreed in 1924 to a treaty with Great Britain providing for the maintenance of British military bases and for a British right of veto over legislation. By 1926 an Iraqi parliament and administration were governing the country. The treaty of 1930 provided for a 25-year alliance with Britain. The British mandate was terminated in 1932, and Iraq was admitted to the League of Nations.

In 1933 the small Christian Assyrian community revolted, culminating in a governmental military crackdown and loss of life and setting a precedent for internal minority uprisings in Iraq. Meanwhile, the first oil concession had been granted in 1925, and in 1934 the export of oil began. Domestic politics were turbulent, with many factions contending for power. Late in 1936, the country experienced the first of seven military coups that were to take place in the next five years.

That's 21 years of tumult described there. A little over 20 years of further tumult later, the Ba'ath Party and Saddam Hussein began their rise to power.

The theory of the PNAC believers and neoconservatives must be that somehow, this time will be different. But the story on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan doesn't seem to be bearing that theory out:

Smashed US Memorial Points to Deepening Iraqi Anger
By Scott Peterson
The Christian Science Monitor

Friday 20 June 2003

BAGHDAD � With tears in his eyes, US Army paratrooper Richard Bohr knelt down in the Iraqi dust and kissed a handmade memorial stone, bidding farewell to a brother in the US Marine Corps who was killed in action on the spot April 10, the day after Baghdad fell to invading American troops.

...

"The US has proved to the Iraqi people that it is an occupation force that wants oil, to protect Israel, and to build big military bases in Iraq," says Mr. Hussein, who also worked in the Iraqi military. "Of course we wanted a change of regime, but not in this way, because we have gone from bad to worse. Then there was safety, and we knew when we would get our salary."

Full Story...

(A story about the troubles in Afgahnistan is forthcoming.)

Rebuilding of Iraq is in Chaos, Say British

A key element of the PNAC's plan for a "unipolar" world is the idea that nations can be fundamentally changed, through force, by other nations. If that premise doesn't hold true, then most of the PNAC strategy would be deemed unreliable, since it relies heavily on the U.S.'s ability to achieve fundamental changes in many nations and regions around the globe.

America's Rebuilding of Iraq is in Chaos, Say British
By Peter Foster
The Telegraph

Tuesday 17 June 2003

The American-led reconstruction effort in Iraq is "in chaos" and suffering from "a complete absence of strategic direction", a very senior British official in Baghdad has told The Telegraph.

Similar frustrations have been voiced privately in London, where British ministers are said to be fed up with being "taken for granted".

Full article...

Is the Neoconservative Moment Over?

The following article, to the extent that it's correct, is a refreshing ray of hope for those concerned about the growing influence of the PNAC adherents. Conservative movement veteran Pat Buchanan believes there are many signs that the "neocons" have seen their peak in influence. However, Justin Raimondo from Antiwar.com makes the case that there are plenty of reasons to stay vigilant, and that the neoconservatives will continue to try and advance their goals for a long time to come.

Is the Neoconservative Moment Over?
by Pat Buchanan
June 16, 2003 issue
The American Conservative

The salad days of the neoconservatives, which began with the president�s Axis-of-Evil address in January 2002 and lasted until the fall of Baghdad may be coming to an end. Indeed, it is likely the neoconservatives will never again enjoy the celebrity and cachet in which they reveled in their romp to war on Iraq.

The first signal that the apogee of American hegemony in the Middle East has been reached came as U.S. soldiers and marines were completing their triumphant march into Baghdad. Suddenly, all the bellicosity toward Syria from neoconservatives and the Pentagon, stopped, apparently on the orders of the Commander in Chief.

Full Article...

Superb Article -- The Mideast: Neocons on the Line

This is an excellent Newsweek article about the PNAC adherents, and where they stand in the post-war atmosphere. It's a thorough overall summary of the neoconservative movement and what it means in terms of current and recent U.S. foreign policy.

The Mideast: Neocons on the Line
A growing number of critics on Capitol Hill and around the world are questioning the Bush administration�s credibility�and its assumptions�as never before.
By Michael Hirsh
Newsweek

Monday 23 June 2003

IT WAS WOLFOWITZ, the gentlemanly superhawk, who within days of 9-11 prodded the Bush administration into a radical new strategy: forcefully confronting states that sponsor terrorism. It was Wolfowitz�the ex math whiz who fell in love with the idea of �national greatness� as a youth and is now seen as the Bush administration�s chief intellectual�who pressed Bush hardest to transform the war on terror into a campaign for regime change and democracy in rogue nations, especially in Iraq and the Islamic world.

QUESTIONS ON U.S. CREDIBILITY
Fairly or not, Paul Wolfowitz has become a lightning rod for much of this criticism, and to �cry Wolfowitz� has already become a catchphrase for the pressing questions about U.S. credibility. At a recent Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, Wolfowitz�always a striking presence with his thick black hair, vaguely lupine looks and air of tense repose�was rocked by hostile questioning. Wolfowitz not long ago dismissed Army chief Eric Shinseki�s call for a large peacekeeping force as �wildly off the mark.� Now he indicated that Iraq looked more complicated than Bosnia. �We�ve been in Bosnia for eight years,� Sen. Joseph Biden snapped back. �That would seem to compute that we�re likely to be in Iraq for a long time�a long time.�

Wolfowitz himself never thought that his long-sought goal of democratic transformation would be easy.

The trouble with Delivering Democracy Abroad

After World War I, the British tried to "civilize" the Arab world, and bring democracy there. The result, in Iraq at least, was a long chain of quite undemocratic arrangements, culminating, after decades of forced monarchy, in the coup that began Saddam Hussein's rise to power.

In other words, history repeats itself.

Ex-Army Boss: Pentagon Won't Admit Reality in Iraq

By Dave Moniz
USA Today
Tuesday 03 June 2003

WASHINGTON � The former civilian head of the Army said Monday it is time for the Pentagon to admit that the military is in for a long occupation of Iraq that will require a major commitment of American troops.

Rumsfeld and Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz criticized the Army's chief of staff, Gen. Eric Shinseki, after Shinseki told Congress in February that the occupation could require "several hundred thousand troops." Wolfowitz called Shinseki's estimate "wildly off the mark."

Full Article...

Chafing at Authority in Iraq
Firing of Council In Basra Upsets Middle Class

By William Booth
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, May 30, 2003; Page A01

BASRA, Iraq, May 29 -- In the first weeks after the war, British and U.S. occupation forces hailed their appointment of a city council here in Iraq's second-largest city as an important first step toward self-rule for the country. In the past week, however, they have dumped the mayor and his council, concluding that the interim government was composed mostly of unpopular tribal sheiks with ties to former president Saddam Hussein and his Baath Party.

The move has alienated many educated Iraqis from the middle-class professions, who say they are being treated like children by the occupation forces and denied true liberation. They say the Americans and British have spoken often of freedom and democracy, but have failed to find a way to meaningfully integrate Iraqis into decision-making positions.

Full Article...

Bad Iraq Data From Start to Finish

More in the series of commentary on the administration's case for the war.

Bad Iraq Data From Start to Finish

On Sunday, Condoleezza Rice admitted that President Bush had used a forged document in his State of the Union speech to prove Iraq represented a nuclear threat: "We did not know at the time--maybe someone knew down in the bowels of the agency--but no one in our circles knew that there were doubts and suspicions that this might be a forgery. Of course it was information that was mistaken."

rest of the article at
http://thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20030623&s=scheer20030610

PNAC Proponents Inflated WMD Threat to Promote Iraq War

Here are a few of the growing number of stories about how administration officials worked to ensure that the threat of Iraq's claimed WMD prgrams and readiness were overstated, in making the case for war with that country.

Powell was Under Pressure to Use Shaky Intelligence on Iraq: Report

US News and World Report magazine said the first draft of the speech was prepared for Powell by Vice President Richard Cheney's chief of staff, Lewis "Scooter" Libby, in late January.

Cheney's aides wanted Powell to include in his presentation information that Iraq has purchased computer software that would allow it to plan an attack on the United States, an allegation that was not supported by the CIA, US News reported.

Full Article...

(Here is a link to the U.S. News & World Report article referred to in the above. The article will go to their for-pay archives after a while.)

Might and Right
Commentary by Philip Gourevitch
The New Yorker
Issue of 2003-06-16
Posted 2003-06-09

Two weeks ago, on the first day of his first foreign trip since the fall of Baghdad, President Bush went to Auschwitz. The symbolism could not have been more heavy-handed: with the international press full of images of the grisly excavations of Saddam Hussein�s killing fields, the President claimed the memory of the six million to explain his �war on terror,� invoking the Nazi gas chambers and crematoriums as �a sobering reminder of the power of evil and the need for people to resist evil.� Bush ended his trip in the same spirit, telling a cheering throng of American troops in Qatar, �The world is now learning what many of you have seen. They�re learning about the mass graves. They�re learning about the torture chambers. Because of you, a great evil has been ended.� It�s true that stopping Saddam�s tyranny is the most heartening and unambiguous consequence of the war in Iraq. But Bush did not take over that country on a humanitarian impulse. As Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz has said, although Saddam�s �criminal treatment of the Iraqi people� was a �fundamental concern� for Washington�s war planners, it was �not a reason to put American kids� lives at risk, certainly not on the scale we did it.� Rather, according to the repeated claims of the Administration, our kids were put at risk in order to disarm Iraq of its chemical and biological weapons, which, intelligence assessments were said to show, posed an urgent threat to our national security.

So where is Saddam�s terrible arsenal? Bush, on his way to Auschwitz, took time out to tell Polish television, �We found the weapons of mass destruction.� That wasn�t true. After more than two months of searching, American forces in Iraq had yet to discover any trace of biological or chemical agents. All they have found is a pair of tractor trailers, which appear to have been fitted out as weapons laboratories but never used. The President�s readiness to present this discovery as a finding of the weapons themselves follows a pattern of distortions on the part of the Administration�hypotheticals proclaimed as facts, suspicions and fears spun as clear and present dangers, actions taken accordingly�throughout the planning, marketing, and prosecution of the war.

Full Article...

Senators Urge Congress to Hold Hearings on Iraq
Reuters
Tuesday 10 June 2003

WASHINGTON - Two key senators said on Tuesday that Congress should hold hearings on what intelligence led the United States to go to war against Iraq.

President Bush stopped short on Monday of repeating his pledge that weapons of mass destruction would be found, although he stated flatly that Iraq had a banned arms program.

Full Article...

The Conservative Split I: An Introduction to Neoconservatism

(NOTE: This is the first in a series of recent commentaries on developments in the conservative political movement-- namely the "rise of the neo-conservatives", and the concern this is causing with the more traditional conservatives and "paleo-conservatives".)

Gary North, a veteran of the modern conservative movement, provides an extraordinary overview of the history of the "neoconservative" branch of that movement, which has culminated in the sharp changes in U.S. foreign policy focus and demeanor seen since the September 11th attacks. His analysis is long, intensely revealing, and it is delivered from the view of a long-time insider and "player" in the conservative ranks.

An Introduction to Neoconservatism

Questions relating to neoconservatism � what it is, who runs the show � have begun to be raised by the conventional press, mainly due to the invasion of Iraq, which is clearly the fruit of policy recommendations made by neoconservative advisors to President Bush. Foreign policy is the traditional monopoly of the Establishment. After all, the Council on Foreign Relations is not called the Council on Domestic Policies. Any invasion of turf by outsiders is therefore resented by the Establishment. The neocons are turf-invaders, which bothers the Establishment far more than the invasion of Iraq does.

In tracing the rise of neoconservatism, it is best to use the five W's of old-fashioned journalism: what, who, when, where, and why, in that order. I offer these thoughts as an introduction, not as anything remotely definitive. Let us begin with the pre-neo conservative movement.

Full Article...

The Conservative Split II: Buchanan Weighs In

(NOTE: This is the second of a series of recent commentaries on developments in the conservative political movement-- namely the "rise of the neo-conservatives", and the concern this is causing with the more traditional conservatives and "paleo-conservatives".)

Editor's Note: I was hesitant at first about posting this article by Pat Buchanan, partially because he has been seen by many as an extremist on some issues, and partly because he occasionally dips below our standard of decorum in his analysis. However, he is a major voice in the conservative community. He has been the conservative commentator for many left-right political shows over the past many years, he has been a Republican candidate for president, and he is an Editor of The American Conservative. Furthermore, his article is quite extensive, he backs up his assertions with extensive quotes and references to other sources, and he provides a valuable in-depth, insider viewpoint on the growing rift in the conservative movement. It certainly provides essential background information in understanding the roots and branches of the PNAC.

It's also worth saying that the growing level of disgust among those "in the know" about the rise of the PNAC and neoconservativism in U.S. foreign policy is making it harder to find analyses and commentaries in which the disgust doesn't show through to at least some extent.

Whose War?
A neoconservative clique seeks to ensnare our country in a series of wars that are not in America�s interest.

by Patrick J. Buchanan
March 24, 2003 issue
Copyright � 2003 The American Conservative

The War Party may have gotten its war. But it has also gotten something it did not bargain for. Its membership lists and associations have been exposed and its motives challenged. In a rare moment in U.S. journalism, Tim Russert put this question directly to Richard Perle: �Can you assure American viewers ... that we�re in this situation against Saddam Hussein and his removal for American security interests? And what would be the link in terms of Israel?�

Former Wall Street Journal editor Max Boot kicked off the campaign. When these �Buchananites toss around �neoconservative��and cite names like Wolfowitz and Cohen�it sometimes sounds as if what they really mean is �Jewish conservative.�� Yet Boot readily concedes that a passionate attachment to Israel is a �key tenet of neoconservatism.� He also claims that the National Security Strategy of President Bush �sounds as if it could have come straight out from the pages of Commentary magazine, the neocon bible.� (For the uninitiated, Commentary, the bible in which Boot seeks divine guidance, is the monthly of the American Jewish Committee.)

Full Article...

The Conservative Split III: A Call to Action

(NOTE: This is the third of a series of recent commentaries on developments in the conservative political movement-- namely the "rise of the neo-conservatives", and the concern this is causing with the more traditional conservatives and "paleo-conservatives".)

The American Conservative Union recently issued an open memo to "Conservative Leaders and Activists", entitled Revitalizing Conservatism. In it, ACU vice-chairman Donald Devine makes 12 numbered points, arguments, and appeals, all centered around the idea that conservatives need to rally around traditional, small-government conservatism, and to resist the rising forces in the Republican Party, and more specifically the so-called "neo-conservatives", which is one of the terms frequently applied to the promoters and friends of the PNAC.

Here are a few of the 12 points he addresses:

1. Beginning a Discussion on the Future of Conservatism. We at ACU believe that it is time for the conservative movement to begin a serious discussion of its future course. The issue is, are we to become just a lobbying force for the Republican Party or should we regain our status as a cutting-edge force moving the country towards freedom and responsibility?

4. The Split on the Right. But it is worse. Conservatives are fighting each other on the front pages of their own magazines. National Review writer David Frum made the argument public with a banner denunciation of any conservative with reservations about the invasion of Iraq. Those conservative intellectuals and activists opposed or even those critical of it before the fighting or even those who mentioned that protecting Israel's interests could complicate matters were all labeled paleo-conservatives and pushed off to the nutty fringe. The only good guys remaining on the right were neo-conservatives. Frum named names, some of who differed on principle, but most simply saw the facts differently. He was so obsessed with his own righteousness in anathematizing heretics he was heedless of how the split would further weaken the forces of the right.

6. The Public Voice of Conservatism? Intellect abhors a vacuum as much as physical matter. So "national greatness" neo-conservatism soon replaced limited government as the ideal and filled the pages of the journals on the right, very much including NR, which at one point even called for a revival of colonialism under U.S. auspices and the building of an American empire. Bill Buckley himself was forced to repair to the pages of rival Human Events-which remained faithful to the original ideals but saw its role as a news magazine rather than as a journal of opinion--to condemn empire-building as incompatible with American conservatism. With the Weekly Standard message boosted by the TV stardom of its editor Bill Kristol-who recently boasted, "if people want to say we're an imperial power, fine"--neo-conservatism became the dominant public face of the movement. The alternatives were the paleo-conservative magazines, Chronicles and The American Conservative, which were equally disdainful of mainstream conservatism.

9. Empire Makes Or Breaks Conservatism. Global empire is an important issue for conservatism. If the U.S. government has the ability to bring peace and democracy to the world, big government can obviously also run America's economy and plan its social life--and limited government becomes irrelevant. Here most of neo-conservatism and paleo-conservatism unite in their lack of interest in limited government. Modern conservatism literally shifted the center of American and world politics against unlimited government, at least in thought, in a not insubstantial manner. All politicians today-especially in the GOP-- find it difficult to push higher taxes and the belief is widespread that government programs do not work very well. Politically, however, government keeps growing and almost no politician concedes there is any limit to where its benefits and power may reach in the future. Even with the largest programs approaching bankruptcy, the government is immobilized by fear of taking action. Government keeps growing and journalistic conservatism is silent that this growth, especially fueled by dreams of empire, threatens the whole project of American liberty.

12. Back To Square One. The conservative movement today is in danger of becoming a lobbying adjunct of the Republican Party. This means its ideas would no longer lead policy and soon thereafter its ideas would die. At the beginning, there were probably only a few thousand committed conservative activists and intellectuals in the whole country. Liberal intellectuals proclaimed "The End of Ideology" because there was no conservative alternative. The GOP was dominated by Nelson Rockefeller and the Eastern liberal Republicans controlled the White House, which threatened conservatives with expulsion if they even complained. We rose up then and moved the world right and we can do it again. If we cannot rise to oppose empire, the movement deserves to fail. All we need to do is get off our butts and speak up for our principles.

Read the whole ACU memo here.